How to Use Dinger Data

Dinger Data is a tool that predicts which baseball players are most likely to hit a home run today. “Dinger” is just slang for home run.

It does this by combining a lot of different signals — how hot the batter is right now, how vulnerable the pitcher is, whether the ballpark gives up a lot of HRs, what the weather's doing, the batter's history vs this exact pitcher, and how well the batter hits the specific pitch types the pitcher throws. All of that gets fed into a statistical simulation that runs the at-bat 10,000 times, and the output is a probability — “this player has a 12% chance of hitting at least one HR tonight.”

You use it for: sports betting (HR props), daily fantasy lineups (DraftKings / FanDuel), or just understanding which games are likely to have fireworks.

The pages of the app are different views of that same data:

• HR Rankings is the main page — the final ranked list.
• Player Dashboard is the deep dive on a single batter.
• Pitcher Dashboard is the deep dive on a single pitcher.
• The other pages (Matchups, AI Report, Pinned, BvP History, Weak Spots, Strikeout Sim, Weather) are different ways to slice the same underlying data.

What it is: The home page. Every batter playing today, ranked from most-likely to least-likely to hit a homer tonight.

How to read it:

• Big number on the right of each card = HR probability. A 10% number means: in the model's view, this batter has a 1-in-10 shot at going deep tonight.
• The colored badge (“Elite,” “Strong,” etc.) is a quick tier so you don't have to compare numbers — Elite means the model is excited; Low means probably skip.
• The little blurb under the batter's name is the insight — it tells you in one sentence why the model likes (or doesn't like) this matchup. Things like “8.2% Barrel / 42% HH” means he's been hitting the ball really hard recently.

What the controls do:

• Today / Tomorrow toggle — switch to tomorrow's slate to plan ahead.
• Game picker — narrow to one matchup. Useful if you only care about one game.
• 2026 / 2025 toggle — early in the season, the 2026 stats are based on a small number of games and can be noisy. Toggle to 2025 to use last year's full-season data as a sanity check.

Badges next to a batter's name:

Look for these little colored pills on the same line as the batter's name — they're shortcuts that tell you something important at a glance, so you don't have to expand the card.

• Weak Spot (green) — appears when the pitcher gets hit hard at this batter's lineup slot. The trigger is OPS ≥ .750 allowed to that slot, but OPS rolls AVG, on-base, slugging, ISO, and HRs into one number — so crossing that line means hitters are punishing the pitcher across the board at this spot, not just in one stat. Strong green flag.
• N HR vs [Pitcher Last Name] (gold) — appears when the batter has 1+ career HR against today's exact opposing pitcher. Hover for the full slash line (e.g. “2 HR in 18 career AB · .278/.611”). Quick way to spot guys who own this pitcher historically.
• Slight / Moderate / Strong / Extreme LHB (or RHB) Boost (green) — the ballpark is hitter-friendly for this batter's handedness. Coors shows “Strong RHB Boost” because Coors gives righties a big HR bump. Different parks favor different sides — Yankee Stadium boosts lefties more than righties because of the short right-field porch.
• Slight / Moderate / Strong / Extreme LHB (or RHB) Suppression (red) — the opposite. The park kills HRs for this batter's hand. Oracle Park shows “Extreme LHB Suppression,” PNC Park shows “Extreme RHB Suppression.” These are real, measurable HR-killer environments — fade your power picks at these spots.

If you see Weak Spot + an HR badge + a Boost badge all green next to a name, that's a stack of green flags before you even expand the card.

What's inside an expanded card:

• Factor Breakdown— the six “reasons” the model arrived at this number. Each is a multiplier shown as +X% or -X%.
  • Base HR Rate: how often this batter hits HRs per plate appearance recently.
  • Pitcher Factor: how vulnerable is the pitcher to HRs?
  • Park Factor: does this ballpark give up a lot of homers overall?
  • Park (Hand): a separate adjustment for whether the park specifically favors the batter's handedness. Captures things like Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch — huge bump for lefties, smaller for righties — that the overall park factor averages out.
  • Weather: hot temperature and wind blowing out → more HRs. Cold and wind in → fewer.
  • H2H vs Pitcher: this batter's career numbers against this exact pitcher.
  • Pitch Mix: does this batter hit the kinds of pitches this pitcher throws?
• Vulnerable Pitches: specific pitches the pitcher throws that this batter has historically destroyed. If you see a row that says “Slider — 28% usage — pitcher gave up 3 HR on it — batter ISO .380,” that's a green flag.

What it is: Everything you'd ever want to know about a single batter.

How to read it:

• Top card has the basics: team, position, batter hand (L/R), today's opponent, opposing pitcher, and that pitcher's HR/9 rate (more on that in the glossary — basically, how many HRs he gives up per 9 innings pitched).
• The L5 / L10 / L15 / Season pills let you flip between time windows. L5 = “Last 5 games.” L10 = “Last 10 games.” Season = full year. Useful because a batter can be hot in his last 5 games but slow over the whole season, or vice versa.

The Home Run Performance Chart:

• Each bar is one game. Green bar = he hit a homer that day. Gray bar = no homer.
• The dashed gold line is his average HR per game over the window you're looking at.
• H2H button flips the chart to show his career performance against today's opposing team — useful for spotting team-specific patterns (“he always rakes against the Yankees”).

Today's Matchup card (right side):

• Pitcher's season stats (ERA, WHIP, HR/9, etc. — see glossary).
• A red badge appears if the pitcher's HR/9 is ≥ 1.5. That means he gives up at least 1.5 home runs per 9 innings — way above league average (around 1.2). It's a green flag for HRs.
• Pitcher's pitch arsenal table — every pitch type he throws, with how often and how it plays. Rows tinted green = his good pitches. Rows tinted red = his bad pitches that hitters crush.
• Career H2H table — your batter's lifetime numbers against this exact pitcher (if they've faced enough).
• Batter's pitch mix table — same pitch types, but now from the batter's perspective. If a row is green, your batter has historically destroyed that pitch. If the pitcher throws that pitch a lot AND your batter destroys it → big green flag.

EV Log (Exit Velocity Log):

• Every plate appearance the batter has had this season, with launch data:
  • Exit Velo (mph): how fast the ball came off the bat. >95 mph = “hard hit.”
  • Launch Angle (degrees): the upward angle. 25–35° is HR territory.
  • Distance (feet): how far it traveled.
  • Bat Speed (mph): how fast he swung the bat.
• Filters let you narrow to L5/L10/L15, only at-bats vs RHP or LHP, only a specific pitch type, or balls-in-play only.

Simulator tab: Manual sliders for each factor. Lets you ask “what if the pitcher were average?” or “what if it weren't so windy?” and see how the HR% changes.

What it is: Everything about a single pitcher. Mirror of Player Dashboard but for the guy throwing.

How to read it:

• Top card: name, team, throwing hand (RHP/LHP), today's opponent.
• The performance chart toggles between ER (Earned Runs allowed per start — fewer is better), HR (Home Runs allowed per start — fewer is better), and K (Strikeouts per start — more is better, from the pitcher's POV).
• Splits table — the pitcher's stats broken into vs LHB, vs RHB, Home, Away. This is where you find lopsided pitchers — a RHP whose ERA is 2.50 vs RHB but 6.00 vs LHB is a known platoon target; load lefty batters against him.

Pitcher's pitch arsenal: Same green/red coloring as on Player Dashboard. Red rows = his pitches that get crushed. If you see a slider with usage 30% and wOBA .390 (way above the .315 average), that's a pitch hitters are smacking.

EV Log: Same thing as the batter EV log, but it shows every batted ball that's been hit off this pitcher. If recent at-bats are all 100+ mph rockets, he's getting hit hard regardless of what his ERA says.

What it is: Game-by-game cards showing the starting pitchers and the relevant batters facing them.

How to read it:

• Each game has two sides — the Away batters facing the Home pitcher, and vice versa.
• Split filter pills (“All / RHB / LHB”) at the top of each side: clicking “LHB” filters the pitcher's stats to his vs-lefty splits AND filters the batter list to only lefties.
• Below each pitcher, a short row for each batter: their AVG, HR count, ISO, SLG, wOBA in the same split.

What it is: A pre-curated daily summary. Think of it as “if you only have 60 seconds, read this.”

Three sections:

1. Pitchers to Target — pitchers who are vulnerable today. Score ≥ 65 = “go after his opposing lineup.”
2. Top Parks Today — combines ballpark HR factor with weather. “+10% total” means the park + weather combine to add 10% to expected HR rates today.
3. Top 10 to Go Yard — final ranked HR picks with a one-line explanation each.

What it is: Your personal watchlist with bookmaker-edge tracking.

How it works:

1. On any Player Dashboard, click the Pin button — saves that player's HR% + insight to your list.
2. On the Pinned page, you can manually log the sportsbook oddsfor that player's HR prop (e.g., +250). The page does the math:
   • +250 = implied probability of 28.6% (book thinks 28.6% chance)
   • If the model says 35% → edge = 35/28.6 − 1 = +22% (model thinks book is too low → bet)
   • If the model says 25% → edge = 25/28.6 − 1 = −12% (model thinks book is sharper → fade)
3. Green edge = the model thinks you have value. Red edge = the model thinks you don't.

What it is: “Batter vs Pitcher” historical numbers. Every batter who has meaningful career experience facing today's starter.

How to read it:

• Each row: how many career plate appearances (PA), at-bats (AB), hits (H), home runs (HR), doubles + triples, strikeouts (K), walks (BB), batting average (BA), and OPS.
• Color cues:
  • BA ≥ .350 = green, ≥ .280 = gold (batter owns this pitcher)
  • OPS ≥ 1.000 = green bold (he's destroyed him historically)
  • HR ≥ 1 = green, ≥ 2 = bold (he's gone deep against him before)
• Minimum threshold to appear: 3+ AB AND (2+ hits OR 1+ HR) lifetime. Filters out noise.

Caveats: Small samples lie. 4-for-10 lifetime with 2 HRs is exciting but might be a coin flip. Use it as a tiebreaker, not a primary signal.

What it is: For each pitcher today, the lineup slots (1st, 2nd, 3rd batter in the order, etc.) where he gets crushed.

Why it matters: Pitchers have weird splits sometimes — a guy might be lights-out vs the top of the order but get tagged by the bottom of the order (or vice versa).

How to read it:

• The big table shows the pitcher's stats vs each batting slot 1–9.
• OPS column color: Green tint = OPS ≥ .750 (the pitcher gets hit at this slot). Red tint = OPS ≤ .640 (he handles this slot well).
• Right side shows today's confirmed lineup with each batter's individual numbers at any slot you pick.

What it is: Like HR Rankings, but for predicting how many strikeouts each starting pitcher will rack up.

How to read it:

• Each pitcher panel shows:
  • Median Ks — the middle outcome from 10,000 simulated games. Think “most likely number of strikeouts tonight.”
  • Distribution chart — bar chart of “probability of exactly N strikeouts.”
  • Over / Under table — probability of clearing standard sportsbook lines (5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5).
  • Batter breakdown — each opposing batter's individual K probability tonight.
• Innings dropdown — change the assumed innings (5–9). Affects total batters faced and therefore total expected Ks.

What it is: Current/forecasted weather at every MLB park playing today, with an HR-impact label.

How to read it:

• Each park card: temperature, wind speed (mph), wind direction (NE / SW / etc. + an arrow), and sky condition.
• HR Boost label:
  • Strong Boost = ≥15 mph wind blowing out toward center field. Park is on fire — bet HRs aggressively in this game.
  • Slight Boost = ≥8 mph wind blowing out. Decent tailwind.
  • Neutral = calm wind or crosswind. No edge.
  • Suppressed = wind blowing in. Fade fly-ball hitters here.
• Dome parks (Tropicana Field) say “Fixed dome — weather not a factor.”
• Retractable roof parks (Chase, Minute Maid, etc.) show conditions but warn: “only applies if the roof is open.”

League averages and target ranges below are based on 2024–2026 MLB norms.

This is HOW a batter puts the ball in play. Two splits: launch angle (vertical — on the ground or in the air?) and spray (horizontal — pulled, middle, or opposite field?). All four launch-angle buckets sum to 100%. Same for the three spray buckets.

Launch-angle split

Spray split (where on the field)

Adjusted for batter handedness so “pull” always means to the batter's pull side, regardless of L/R.

The HR probability is computed as:

final_HR_per_PA = base_rate × pitcher_factor × park_factor × handedness_factor
                  × weather_factor × h2h_factor × pitch_mix_factor

Then the simulator runs 10,000 trials of ~4 PAs and the HR% you see is 1 − P(zero HRs across 4 PAs).

Factor ranges:

• Each individual multiplier is clamped (usually 0.6× to 1.5×) to prevent one extreme stat from breaking the model.
• Final per-PA HR rate is capped at 10%.

Tier thresholds (HR Rankings score = HR% ÷ 30 × 100):

• Elite ≥ 70 score (≥ 21% HR chance tonight)
• Strong ≥ 50 score (≥ 15%)
• Moderate ≥ 35 score (≥ 10.5%)
• Slight ≥ 20 score (≥ 6%)
• Low < 20 score (< 6%)

Edge = (Model probability ÷ Implied probability) − 1. Positive edge = model thinks the book is too low (bet); negative = book is sharper than model (fade).