How to Use Dinger Data

Dinger Data is a tool that predicts which baseball players are most likely to hit a home run today. “Dinger” is just slang for home run.

It does this by combining a lot of different signals: how hot the batter is right now, how vulnerable the pitcher is, whether the ballpark gives up a lot of HRs, what the weather is doing, the batter's history vs this exact pitcher, and how well the batter hits the specific pitch types the pitcher throws. All of that feeds a statistical model that works the probability out directly, and the output is a number like “this player has a 12% chance of hitting at least one HR tonight.”

You use it for: sports betting (HR props), daily fantasy lineups (DraftKings / FanDuel), or just understanding which games are likely to have fireworks.

The pages of the app are different views of that same data:

• HR Rankings is the main page: the final ranked list.
• Player Dashboard is the deep dive on a single batter.
• Pitcher Dashboard is the deep dive on a single pitcher.
• Prop Explorer is the slate-wide table of every player prop, not just home runs (hits, total bases, strikeouts, and more).
• The other pages (Matchups, Park Factors, Dinger Dude Report, Pinned, BvP History, Weak Spots, Strikeout Sim, Home Run Leaders, Weather) are different ways to slice the same underlying data.

Some of this is free and some is for subscribers. The next section spells out exactly which is which.

Dinger Data is freemium. You can browse, learn, and get a real read on today's slate for free. The full decision board, the AI write-ups, and the deeper modeling tools are for subscribers.

Free, no account needed:

• HR Rankings: the top 5 batters on the board each day, with their probability, tier, and insight blurb.
• Player & Pitcher Dashboards: the core stats, performance charts, splits, pitch arsenals, and EV logs.
• Matchups: the game-by-game pitcher-vs-batter board with the split filters.
• Prop Explorer: the top 8 props on today's slate, ranked by the model's hit chance.
• Park Factors: the top 3 parks for today, ranked by combined park-plus-weather effect.
• BvP History, Pitcher Weak Spots, Home Run Leaders, and Weather: shown in full.
• Pinned: free, but it needs a (free) account so your watchlist can sync across devices.

A subscription unlocks:

• The full HR Rankings board, every batter playing today, not just the top 5.
• The full Prop Explorer board, every player prop on the slate, not just the top 8.
• The Dinger Dude Insight, the AI write-up on each Player and Pitcher Dashboard that reasons over the matchup in plain English.
• The Dinger Dude Report (the daily slate briefing).
• The Strikeout Simulator.
• Full Park Factors: every park, plus each park's detail page with the to-scale field diagram and per-zone HR factors.
• The Advanced Batter Stats drill-down on Matchups.
• On the dashboards: the “Facing this opponent” opponent panel and the Strikeout Projection strip.

What it is: The home page. Every batter playing today, ranked from most-likely to least-likely to hit a homer tonight. The top 5 are free; subscribers see the full board.

How to read it:

• Big number on the right of each card = HR probability. A 10% number means: in the model's view, this batter has a 1-in-10 shot at going deep tonight.
• The colored badge (“Elite,” “Strong,” etc.) is a quick tier so you don't have to compare numbers. Elite means the model is excited; Low means probably skip.
• The little blurb under the batter's name is the insight: it tells you in one sentence why the model likes (or doesn't like) this matchup. Things like “8.2% Barrel / 42% HH” means he's been hitting the ball really hard recently.

What the controls do:

• Today / Tomorrow toggle: switch to tomorrow's slate to plan ahead.
• Game picker: narrow to one matchup. Useful if you only care about one game.
• 2026 / 2025 toggle: early in the season, the 2026 stats are based on a small number of games and can be noisy. Toggle to 2025 to use last year's full-season data as a sanity check.

Badges next to a batter's name:

Look for these little colored pills on the same line as the batter's name. They're shortcuts that tell you something important at a glance, so you don't have to expand the card. These are the real badges and what each one means:

If you see Weak Spot plus an HR badge plus a green Boost all next to one name, that's a stack of green flags before you even expand the card.

What's inside an expanded card:

• Factor Breakdown: the seven lines behind the number. Base HR Rate is the starting point; the other six are multipliers shown as +X% or -X%.
  • Base HR Rate: how often this batter hits HRs per plate appearance recently.
  • Pitcher Factor: how vulnerable is the pitcher to HRs?
  • Park Factor: does this ballpark give up a lot of homers overall?
  • Park (Hand): a separate adjustment for whether the park specifically favors the batter's handedness. Captures cases like Citizens Bank Park, which gives left-handed power a real bump while playing tougher on righties, that the overall park factor averages out.
  • Weather: hot temperature and wind blowing out → more HRs. Cold and wind in → fewer.
  • H2H vs Pitcher: this batter's career numbers against this exact pitcher.
  • Pitch Mix: does this batter hit the kinds of pitches this pitcher throws?
• Vulnerable Pitches: specific pitches the pitcher throws that this batter has historically destroyed. If you see a row that says “Slider, 28% usage, pitcher gave up 3 HR on it, batter ISO .380,” that's a green flag.

What it is: Everything you'd ever want to know about a single batter.

How to read it:

• Top card has the basics: team, position, batter hand (L/R), today's opponent, opposing pitcher, and that pitcher's HR/9 rate (more on that in the glossary, basically how many HRs he gives up per 9 innings pitched).
• The L5 / L10 / L15 / Season pills let you flip between time windows. L5 = “Last 5 games.” L10 = “Last 10 games.” Season = full year. Useful because a batter can be hot in his last 5 games but slow over the whole season, or vice versa.

The Home Run Performance Chart:

• Each bar is one game. Green bar = he hit a homer that day. Gray bar = no homer.
• The dashed gold line is his average HR per game over the window you're looking at.
• H2H button flips the chart to show his career performance against today's opposing team: useful for spotting team-specific patterns (“he always rakes against the Yankees”).

Today's Matchup card (right side):

• Pitcher's season stats (ERA, WHIP, HR/9, etc.; see glossary).
• A red badge appears if the pitcher's HR/9 is ≥ 1.5. That means he gives up at least 1.5 home runs per 9 innings, way above league average (around 1.2). It's a green flag for HRs.
• Pitcher's pitch arsenal table: every pitch type he throws, with how often and how it plays. Rows tinted green = his good pitches. Rows tinted red = his bad pitches that hitters crush.
• Career H2H table: your batter's lifetime numbers against this exact pitcher (if they've faced enough).
• Batter's pitch mix table: same pitch types, but now from the batter's perspective. If a row is green, your batter has historically destroyed that pitch. If the pitcher throws that pitch a lot AND your batter destroys it → big green flag.

EV Log (Exit Velocity Log):

• Every plate appearance the batter has had this season, with launch data:
  • Exit Velo (mph): how fast the ball came off the bat. >95 mph = “hard hit.”
  • Launch Angle (degrees): the upward angle. 25-35° is HR territory.
  • Distance (feet): how far it traveled.
  • Bat Speed (mph): how fast he swung the bat.
• Filters let you narrow to L5/L10/L15, only at-bats vs RHP or LHP, only a specific pitch type, or balls-in-play only.

Simulator tab: Manual sliders for each factor. Lets you ask “what if the pitcher were average?” or “what if it weren't so windy?” and see how the HR% changes.

Dinger Dude Insight Subscriber: the AI write-up near the top of the page. It reads the whole matchup (recent power, the pitcher, the park, the weather, the pitch arsenal) and explains in a few plain sentences why the model likes or fades this bat tonight. This is the same voice you see quoted as the one-line insight on Rankings, expanded out.

What it is: Everything about a single pitcher. Mirror of Player Dashboard but for the guy throwing.

How to read it:

• Top card: name, team, throwing hand (RHP/LHP), today's opponent.
• The performance chart toggles between ER (Earned Runs allowed per start, fewer is better), HR (Home Runs allowed per start, fewer is better), and K (Strikeouts per start, more is better, from the pitcher's POV).
• Season Splits table: the pitcher's stats broken into vs LHB, vs RHB, Home, and Away, plus Day, Night, and the current month once he has at least 3 starts in that split (smaller samples are left off so a one or two start streak doesn't read as a trend, and the start count is shown next to each). This is where you find lopsided pitchers: a RHP whose ERA is 2.50 vs RHB but 6.00 vs LHB is a platoon target, so load lefty batters against him.

Pitcher's pitch arsenal: Same green/red coloring as on Player Dashboard. Red rows = his pitches that get crushed. If you see a slider with usage 30% and wOBA .390 (way above the .315 average), that's a pitch hitters are smacking.

EV Log: Same thing as the batter EV log, but it shows every batted ball that's been hit off this pitcher. If recent at-bats are all 100+ mph rockets, he's getting hit hard regardless of what his ERA says.

“Facing this opponent” panel Subscriber: today's opposing lineup measured against this pitcher, with a league Rank column. A tab switches the lens: Earned Runs ranks the lineup by run production, Home Runs by power, Strikeouts by how often they go down swinging. The rank is out of 30, where 1 is the best matchup for the pitcher (the lineup that scores least, or strikes out most). A green rank means the pitcher handles that spot; a red rank flags a lineup to attack with HR bets on the hitters.

Strikeout Projection Subscriber: a strip that projects his strikeouts tonight at his average workload. It shows the median Ks and, when a sportsbook has posted one, the Book O/Uline with the model's percent chance of going over it. It runs on the same engine as the Strikeout Simulator, so the two always agree.

Dinger Dude Insight Subscriber: the AI write-up, here focused on the pitcher: how vulnerable he looks tonight, which bats in the other lineup are the real threats, and a line on his strikeout outlook.

What it is:One giant sortable table of every player prop on today's slate, not just home runs. Each row is one player at one prop line, with the model's chance of going over, the book price, and how often he has cleared that line recently. The top 8 rows are free; subscribers see the whole board.

What props are covered:

• Hitters: Home Runs, Hits, Total Bases, Singles, Doubles, Strikeouts, Runs, RBI, and H+R+RBI.
• Pitchers: Strikeouts, Earned Runs, Walks, and HR Allowed.

What the controls do:

• Over / Under toggle: flips the whole table between betting the over and the under. Every model chance, price, and edge recalculates for the side you pick.
• All / Hitters / Pitchers: narrow to just batter props or just pitcher props.
• Search player / Search props: type a name to find one guy, or a prop word (like “strikeouts”) to pull every row of that type.
• Categories and Games: filter to the prop categories or the specific games you care about.
• Book (FD / DK / FAN / MGM): choose which sportsbook's price the Odds and Edge columns use. Switching books can move the edge, since not every book hangs the same number.
• Sort: click any column header to sort by it. The board opens sorted by the model's hit chance.

How to read the columns:

The two L5 / L10 groups are different: the first pair is his average of the stat, the trio on the right is how often he cleared the line. The green-to-red shading on the hit-rate cells lets you scan a row for hot and cold windows at a glance.

The board caps how many rows it paints at once for speed, so a “showing X of Y” note means there are more behind your current sort. Filter by game, category, or player to bring the rest into view.

What it is: Game-by-game cards showing the starting pitchers and the relevant batters facing them.

How to read it:

• Each game has two sides: the Away batters facing the Home pitcher, and vice versa.
• Split filter pills (“All / RHB / LHB”) at the top of each side: clicking “LHB” filters the pitcher's stats to his vs-lefty splits AND filters the batter list to only lefties.
• Below each pitcher, a short row for each batter: their AVG, HR count, ISO, SLG, wOBA in the same split.

Advanced Batter Stats Subscriber: each side has a collapsible drill-down that opens a full table for that lineup, with a green-to-red heatmap so the hot and cold numbers jump out. A view switcher gives you four lenses:

• Homerun Targets: the power and contact columns (SLG, ISO, HR, exit velo, barrel %, hard-hit %, fly-ball %, pulled-air %).
• All Stats: the full board (rate stats, wOBA, the batted-ball mix, K% and BB%, and more).
• Strikeouts: K% plus swinging-strike %, for the strikeout-prop angle.
• Historic Matchups: each batter's career line against the starting pitcher, or against the opposing team.

A filter bar above the table reshapes the sample: pick the season, a recent window (last N days, weeks, or months), day or night games, vs RHP or LHP, a minimum at-bat cutoff, and even a single pitch type from the starter's arsenal. You can also jump the split straight to “vs today's starter.”

What it is: How much each ballpark in play today helps or hurts home runs, the same park signal that feeds the Rankings, laid out on its own page. The top 3 parks are free; the full board and the per-park detail pages are for subscribers.

The board:

• One row per game, with three numbers: Combined (the park and today's weather together), Weather (today's conditions only), and Park (the venue's standing HR factor). All are shown as + or − percent vs an average park, color-coded green to red.
• Sort by Combined, Weather, or Park Only to ask different questions: where is it hottest right now, versus which yard is a launching pad on paper.
• Each row also notes wind receptiveness, outfield size, altitude, and first-pitch time.

The per-park detail page (click any park):

• A to-scale diagram of the field with real fence distances and wall heights, shaded by zone so you can see where the long ball plays (green) and where it dies (red).
• Today's combined HR effect broken into park and weather, with the live weather strip.
• A factor table for the venue: Home Runs, Doubles and Triples, Singles, and Runs, each vs an average park. The HR figures are built from three years of Statcast; the fence distances and wall heights are the official current dimensions.

What it is: The day's Dinger Dude Report, a curated summary for when you only have 60 seconds. It pulls the strongest angles on the slate into one place.

Three sections:

1. Pitchers to Target: pitchers who are vulnerable today. Score ≥ 65 = “go after his opposing lineup.”
2. Top Parks Today: combines ballpark HR factor with weather. “+10% total” means the park + weather combine to add 10% to expected HR rates today.
3. Top 10 to Go Yard: final ranked HR picks with a one-line explanation each.

What it is: Your personal watchlist with bookmaker-edge tracking.

How it works:

1. On any Player Dashboard, click the Pin button: saves that player's HR% + insight to your list.
2. On the Pinned page, you can manually log the sportsbook oddsfor that player's HR prop (e.g., +250). The page does the math:
   • +250 = implied probability of 28.6% (book thinks 28.6% chance)
   • If the model says 35% → edge = 35/28.6 − 1 = +22% (model thinks book is too low → bet)
   • If the model says 25% → edge = 25/28.6 − 1 = −12% (model thinks book is sharper → fade)
3. Green edge = the model thinks you have value. Red edge = the model thinks you don't.

What it is: “Batter vs Pitcher” historical numbers. Every batter who has meaningful career experience facing today's starter.

How to read it:

• Each row: how many career plate appearances (PA), at-bats (AB), hits (H), home runs (HR), doubles + triples, strikeouts (K), walks (BB), batting average (BA), and OPS.
• Color cues:
  • BA ≥ .350 = green, ≥ .280 = gold (batter owns this pitcher)
  • OPS ≥ 1.000 = green bold (he's destroyed him historically)
  • HR ≥ 1 = green, ≥ 2 = bold (he's gone deep against him before)
• Minimum threshold to appear: 3+ AB AND (2+ hits OR 1+ HR) lifetime. Filters out noise.

Caveats: Small samples lie. 4-for-10 lifetime with 2 HRs is exciting but might be a coin flip. Use it as a tiebreaker, not a primary signal.

What it is: For each pitcher today, the lineup slots (1st, 2nd, 3rd batter in the order, etc.) where he gets crushed.

Why it matters: Pitchers have weird splits sometimes: a guy might be lights-out vs the top of the order but get tagged by the bottom of the order (or vice versa).

How to read it:

• The big table shows the pitcher's stats vs each batting slot 1-9.
• OPS column color: Green tint = OPS ≥ .750 (the pitcher gets hit at this slot). Red tint = OPS ≤ .640 (he handles this slot well).
• Right side shows today's confirmed lineup with each batter's individual numbers at any slot you pick.

What it is: Like HR Rankings, but for predicting how many strikeouts each starting pitcher will rack up.

How to read it:

• Each pitcher panel shows:
  • Median Ks: the middle outcome from 10,000 simulated games. Think “most likely number of strikeouts tonight.”
  • Book O/U: when a sportsbook has posted a strikeout line for him, the panel shows that line and the model's percent chance of going over it, so the gap is right there.
  • Distribution chart: a bar chart of “probability of exactly N strikeouts.”
  • Strikeout Lines table: the model's probability of clearing each standard line, from Over 3.5 all the way up through Over 9.5 Ks.
  • Batter breakdown: each opposing batter's individual K probability tonight.
• Sim Innings buttons: the projection defaults to the pitcher's own average innings per start, rounded and capped at 7 (no starter really averages more, so a higher reading is usually a small-sample artifact that would inflate the Ks). You can still click 5 through 9 to run what-ifs; more innings means more batters faced and a higher K total.

What it is: A simple, free leaderboard of who is hitting the most home runs, two ways.

• Season HR Leaders: the top home-run hitters this season, ranked by total.
• Weekday HR Leaders: the most home runs hit on this particular day of the week this season (a “Wednesday” list on a Wednesday, and so on). Some hitters carry real day-of-week patterns, and the biggest ones earn the amber weekday badge you see on the Rankings.

What it is: Current/forecasted weather at every MLB park playing today, with an HR-impact label.

How to read it:

• Each park card: temperature, wind speed (mph), wind direction (NE / SW / etc. + an arrow), and sky condition.
• HR Boost label:
  • Strong Boost = ≥15 mph wind blowing out toward center field. Park is on fire, so bet HRs aggressively in this game.
  • Slight Boost = ≥8 mph wind blowing out. Decent tailwind.
  • Neutral = calm wind or crosswind. No edge.
  • Suppressed = wind blowing in. Fade fly-ball hitters here.
• Dome parks (Tropicana Field) say “Fixed dome, weather not a factor.”
• Retractable roof parks (Chase, Minute Maid, etc.) show conditions but warn: “only applies if the roof is open.”

League averages and target ranges below are based on 2024-2026 MLB norms.

This is HOW a batter puts the ball in play. Two splits: launch angle (vertical: on the ground or in the air?) and spray (horizontal: pulled, middle, or opposite field?). All four launch-angle buckets sum to 100%. Same for the three spray buckets.

Launch-angle split

Spray split (where on the field)

Adjusted for batter handedness so “pull” always means to the batter's pull side, regardless of L/R.

The HR rate per plate appearance starts from the batter's base rate, adjusted by the matchup factors:

final_HR_per_PA = base_rate × pitcher_factor × park_factor × handedness_factor
                  × weather_factor × h2h_factor × pitch_mix_factor

Because those factors aren't truly independent in reality, the model doesn't apply the raw product as-is: it dampens the combined swing away from neutral, so a big stack of green factors gets pulled partway back toward the base rate instead of compounding into an unrealistic number. That gives the final HR-per-PA rate.

From that rate, the HR% you see is the probability of at least one home run across the batter's projected plate appearances for the night (around four, scaled by his spot in the order): 1 − P(zero HRs)under a Binomial. It's solved in closed form, exactly, not by running random trials, so the number doesn't wobble from one page load to the next.

Factor ranges:

• Each individual multiplier is clamped (roughly 0.6× to 1.5×) so one extreme stat can't break the model.
• The whole formula is calibrated against our own graded pick record: the probabilities you see are tuned so that, historically, picks stated at a given percentage actually homered at about that rate.

Tier thresholds (by tonight’s HR chance, the per-game odds of at least one home run):

• Elite ≥ 26% HR chance tonight
• Strong 20-26%
• Moderate 14-20%
• Slight 8-14%
• Low < 8%

Edge = (Model probability ÷ Implied probability) − 1. Positive edge = model thinks the book is too low (bet); negative = book is sharper than model (fade).